Foresight COVID-19: outbreak after the weakening of quarantine measures


The results of a new study «Foresight COVID-19: outbreak after the weakening of quarantine measures» is presented today wich is a part of the research of the World Data Center for Geoinformatics and Sustainable Development project "Foresight COVID-19" team to forecast the spreading risk of SARS-CoV-2 in Ukraine.

The study is devoted to the analysis of the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine after the weakening of quarantine measures (period 11.05.2020 - 20.06.2020).

The four-stage weakening of quarantine measures and the transition to adaptive quarantine affected to a sharp decline in social discipline, a significant increase in their safety, increased pedestrian and car mobility and other factors that led to a sharp increase in new cases and a return to exponential pattern of pandemic spread in the first half of June 2020.

Given the significant uncertainties in the process of spreading the COVID-19 pandemic in Ukraine, caused primarily by unpredictable social behavior of people after the weakening of quarantine measures, the team of the project "Foresight COVID-19" provides very careful forecasts of the lower and upper limits of the confidence interval disease by the end of June 2020.

In the regional aspect, the situation differs significantly between the Western and South-Eastern parts of Ukraine. The number of patients in the western regions of the country is growing critically, which determines the significant risks of further spread of the pandemic to other areas. These disparities are due to the peculiarities of communication of the population in different regions of Ukraine, the unevenness of migration flows, regional features of counteraction and fight against the pandemic.

Scientists have shown that after a significant outbreak of the pandemic during the first two decades of June 2020, there is likely to be a slow decline in the number of new cases before entering the confidence interval (600-750) of new cases per day and stay in this interval with significant daily fluctuations until the end of June. 2020. The further course of events will depend both on the emergence of possible unpredictable factors and on the well-organized, coordinated work of public authorities, society, all its institutions and every citizen.


Співставлення етапів послаблення карантину з щоденною динамікою кількості тих, хто захворів, одужав і різниці між ними

Рівень інцидентності в різних регіонах УкраїниДинаміка захворюваності на COVID-19 в регіонах України