12.07.2020
The team of scientists of the WDC-Ukraine «Foresight COVID-19» project presented the results of the next predictive modeling of the COVID-19 pandemic spread in Ukraine for the period up to the end of July 2020 «Foresight COVID-19: fourth stage of the quarantine measures weakening».
The results of predictive simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic spread indicate a trend of slow attenuation of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the time period of 12.07.20 - 29.07.20.
According to scientists, the epidemiological situation during the fourth stage of quarantine measures weakening continues to be difficult in the regions of Western Ukraine and Kyiv City. The situation is worsening in Kharkiv, Donetsk and Odesa regions due to the increase in population mobility, the decrease in the level of security and discipline of people. The situation with hospitalization in Zakarpattia, Lviv, Volyn, Rivne regions and Kyiv City remains tense. At the same time, in Ukraine as a whole, the results of the predictive modeling indicate the possible beginning of a slow attenuation trend in the spread of the pandemic.
Studies of general (walking and driving) mobility of the population show that it continues to significantly exceed the initial indicators of the beginning of the year. The average driving mobility for the period from June 17 to the present has averaged 160% since the beginning of the year, and walking - 130%.
There is a clear statistical relationship (almost linear) between the increase in the number of tests and the number of identified patients, which is determined by a set of factors in the development of the epidemiological situation. However, in the previous stages of quarantine measures weakening, the nature of this dependence changed from time to time, indicating that the saturation point, which is associated with maximum coverage of potential patients in Ukraine, has not yet been reached.
The results of predictive simulation of the COVID-19 pandemic spread, obtained using the method of similarity in mathematical modeling, recurrent neural network with long short-term memory (LSTM) and Back Propagation Neural Network , indicate a trend of slow attenuation of the second wave of the COVID-19 pandemic in the time period of 12.07.20 - 29.07.20.
The further spread of the disease will depend on both systematic and effective actions of the authorities and on the social discipline of the population, which is gaining special importance, in particular in view of the approaching new academic year.
