Foresight: Scenarios of the Course of the Russian-Ukrainian War in the Context of the New Architecture
2024
Foresight: Scenarios of the Course of the Russian-Ukrainian War in the Context of the New Architecture
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The study shows that the further course of the Russian-Ukrainian war depends both on the state of affairs in the theater of operations and on the prospect of building a new Euro-Atlantic architecture of security and regional stability in Europe. The development of this architecture should be based, first of all, on taking into account the balance of interests of the USA, EU+Great Britain, on the one hand, and China and Russia, on the other. In the context of this paradigm, eleven scenarios for determining the future geopolitical status of Ukraine were generated: four - under the conditions of Ukraine’s continued movement towards NATO. Four scenarios, under the conditions of Ukraine’s refusal to join NATO, but for the continuation of the movement towards the EU. Two scenarios related to Ukraine’s provision of individual security outside the EU and NATO. The worst-case scenario is a continuous military confrontation between the opposing sides and their preparation for the next large-scale war. It is shown that the path to achieving the conditions for the start of the negotiation process will be difficult and long. Currently, both the participants in the conflict and the international community do not yet have a constructive negotiating platform, which points to the prospect of a continuation of the war in 2024 and possibly in 2025. |
The Legacy of Academician Glushkov at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute
2023
The Legacy of Academician Glushkov at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute
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The role of academician Viktor Glushkov in the creation of scientific schools in the field of cybernetics, computing and informatics at the Igor Sikorsky Kyiv Polytechnic Institute is considered. Thanks to which the University became a powerful national center for training specialists and carrying out scientific research in this field. The significant influence of academician Hlushkov’s ideas on the formation of generations of scientists, who to this day continue to build a digital society in Ukraine and far beyond its borders, is shown. For scientists, teachers, postgraduates, historians of science and a wide range of readers. |
Foresight: challenges to the energy independence of countries and regions of the world in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons
2021
Foresight: challenges to the energy independence of countries and regions of the world in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons
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The study analyzes the state of energy independence and its components for countries and regions of the world since the beginning of the 21st century by the calculation of a specially developed index. The changes that have taken place in the global markets of the world in recent years, that led tothe emergence and spread of the global energy crisis, are studied. The analysis of the real state of the energy sector of Ukraine as a fundamental component of the national economy and security is performed. The mechanism of deployment and consequences of the crisis for the economy and security of the EU and Ukraine is studied. possible economic and security threats to Ukraine are identified on this basis. The Delphi study of the main clusters of the energy sector of the country is conducted, the priority of the contribution of each of them to the overall growth of the economy and security of Ukraine is determined. Important characteristics of the Ukrainian energy sector in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons are formulated. The complex of works on the foresight of possible scenarios for Ukrainian energy sector development, with which Ukraine would be able to ensure its energy independence, on the time horizons until 2025 and 2030 are fulfilled. |
The Foresight of Ukraine's Defense-Industrial Complex Development for the 2021-2030 Time Horizons
2021
The Foresight of Ukraine's Defense-Industrial Complex Development for the 2021-2030 Time Horizons
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The study analyzes the real state of the social and economic spheres of Ukraine as a fundamental component of national security and defense. On this basis, possible security threats to Ukraine over the time horizon until 2030 and important characteristics of the future defense-industrial complex of Ukraine are analyzed. Using the Delphi method, the necessary main clusters of the future defense industry of the country were studied, the priority of the contribution of each defense cluster to the overall growth of Ukraine’s security was studied and important characteristics of the renewed defense-industrial complex were analyzed with which Ukraine would be able, by asymmetric means, to deter external aggression on the time horizon until 2030. A complex of works on Foresight of a set of possible scenarios of future events in Ukraine was performed, which can be used as a basis for developing a strategy to protect the country and its further peaceful, sustainable development. |
Foresight 2018: analysis of the training and retraining of specialists in the natural and technical direction, based on the goals of sustainable socioeconomic development of Ukraine by 2025 (Ukrainian)
2018
Foresight 2018: analysis of the training and retraining of specialists in the natural and technical direction, based on the goals of sustainable socioeconomic development of Ukraine by 2025 (Ukrainian)
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Proceeding from the main objective of the socio-economic development of Ukraine until 2025, an analysis of the available human capital in the country through the cross-cutting levels of training: general secondary school, vocational training, and a high school) was performed. An estimation of the gap between the available and necessary human capital for achievement of the set of goals in the national and sectorial contexts has been made. The ability of scientific and pedagogical schools of Ukraine to carry out training of human capital in accordance with the group of criteria of international cooperation of labor is researched. The sequence of governmental actions aimed at ensuring high-tech development of the country in the medium-term (by 2020) and long-term (by 2030) is proposed. |
Foresight 2018: systemic world conflicts and global forecast for XXI century
2018
Foresight 2018: systemic world conflicts and global forecast for XXI century
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The generalization and formalization of approaches to the recognition of C-waves of global systemic conflicts through big historical data have been carried out and general concept of description and interpretation of these waves has been proposed. On the basis of intellectual analysis of big data on the conflicts, taking place since 750 B.C. up to now, have been analyzed and their general pattern has been revealed. There has been made an attempt to foresee the next global conflict called the conflict of the XXI century. Its nature and main characteristics have been analyzed. The hypotheses for a metric relation between the global periodic processes, namely between the sequence of 11-year cycles of solar activity, so called Kondratieff cycles of the development of the global economy, and the process of evolutionary structuration of the family of the C-waves of global systemic conflicts have been formulated. There has also been made an attempt to predict these processes in the XXI century by using a metric approach. The possible scenarios of the development of the conflict of the XXI century have been constructed and analyzed. The research paper is designated to the scientists and experts in the field of national security, state administration and sustainable development. |
