Foresight: challenges to the energy independence of countries and regions of the world in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons
2021
Foresight: challenges to the energy independence of countries and regions of the world in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons
|
The study analyzes the state of energy independence and its components for countries and regions of the world since the beginning of the 21st century by the calculation of a specially developed index. The changes that have taken place in the global markets of the world in recent years, that led tothe emergence and spread of the global energy crisis, are studied. The analysis of the real state of the energy sector of Ukraine as a fundamental component of the national economy and security is performed. The mechanism of deployment and consequences of the crisis for the economy and security of the EU and Ukraine is studied. possible economic and security threats to Ukraine are identified on this basis. The Delphi study of the main clusters of the energy sector of the country is conducted, the priority of the contribution of each of them to the overall growth of the economy and security of Ukraine is determined. Important characteristics of the Ukrainian energy sector in the medium-term (until 2025) and long-term (until 2030) time horizons are formulated. The complex of works on the foresight of possible scenarios for Ukrainian energy sector development, with which Ukraine would be able to ensure its energy independence, on the time horizons until 2025 and 2030 are fulfilled. |
The Foresight of Ukraine's Defense-Industrial Complex Development for the 2021-2030 Time Horizons
2021
The Foresight of Ukraine's Defense-Industrial Complex Development for the 2021-2030 Time Horizons
|
The study analyzes the real state of the social and economic spheres of Ukraine as a fundamental component of national security and defense. On this basis, possible security threats to Ukraine over the time horizon until 2030 and important characteristics of the future defense-industrial complex of Ukraine are analyzed. Using the Delphi method, the necessary main clusters of the future defense industry of the country were studied, the priority of the contribution of each defense cluster to the overall growth of Ukraine’s security was studied and important characteristics of the renewed defense-industrial complex were analyzed with which Ukraine would be able, by asymmetric means, to deter external aggression on the time horizon until 2030. A complex of works on Foresight of a set of possible scenarios of future events in Ukraine was performed, which can be used as a basis for developing a strategy to protect the country and its further peaceful, sustainable development. |
Foresight 2018: analysis of the training and retraining of specialists in the natural and technical direction, based on the goals of sustainable socioeconomic development of Ukraine by 2025 (Ukrainian)
2018
Foresight 2018: analysis of the training and retraining of specialists in the natural and technical direction, based on the goals of sustainable socioeconomic development of Ukraine by 2025 (Ukrainian)
|
Proceeding from the main objective of the socio-economic development of Ukraine until 2025, an analysis of the available human capital in the country through the cross-cutting levels of training: general secondary school, vocational training, and a high school) was performed. An estimation of the gap between the available and necessary human capital for achievement of the set of goals in the national and sectorial contexts has been made. The ability of scientific and pedagogical schools of Ukraine to carry out training of human capital in accordance with the group of criteria of international cooperation of labor is researched. The sequence of governmental actions aimed at ensuring high-tech development of the country in the medium-term (by 2020) and long-term (by 2030) is proposed. |
Foresight 2018: systemic world conflicts and global forecast for XXI century
2018
Foresight 2018: systemic world conflicts and global forecast for XXI century
|
The generalization and formalization of approaches to the recognition of C-waves of global systemic conflicts through big historical data have been carried out and general concept of description and interpretation of these waves has been proposed. On the basis of intellectual analysis of big data on the conflicts, taking place since 750 B.C. up to now, have been analyzed and their general pattern has been revealed. There has been made an attempt to foresee the next global conflict called the conflict of the XXI century. Its nature and main characteristics have been analyzed. The hypotheses for a metric relation between the global periodic processes, namely between the sequence of 11-year cycles of solar activity, so called Kondratieff cycles of the development of the global economy, and the process of evolutionary structuration of the family of the C-waves of global systemic conflicts have been formulated. There has also been made an attempt to predict these processes in the XXI century by using a metric approach. The possible scenarios of the development of the conflict of the XXI century have been constructed and analyzed. The research paper is designated to the scientists and experts in the field of national security, state administration and sustainable development. |
Analysis of socio-economic processes of knowledge-based society development (in Ukrainian)
2016
Analysis of socio-economic processes of knowledge-based society development (in Ukrainian)
|
Foresight and construction of the strategies of socio-economic development of Ukraine in the mid-term (up to 2020) and long-term (up to 2030) time horizons
2016
Foresight and construction of the strategies of socio-economic development of Ukraine in the mid-term (up to 2020) and long-term (up to 2030) time horizons
|
The methodology was improved and the complex of works fulfilled on the foresight of future economy of Ukraine for mid-term (2020) and long-term (2030) time horizons. The 8 scenarios of socio-economic development of Ukraine through 2030 were specified using the methodology of scenario planning and SWOT-analysis. Applying the Delphi and SWOT analysis techniques has allowed carry out a new wide-ranging expert study of the socio-economic segment of society and provide the estimation of the availability of human capital, which is capable to make needed transformation in the country. Also fifty major actions of the government were built in the form of socio-economic development in the medium and long term. These results may be used by decision makers at the state level, civil society institutions and international organizations for defining rational policy and constructive plans of social and economic development of Ukraine for mid-term and long-term time prospects. Short annotation can be found here. |